How the chances have done
Last updated 15 November 2026
Weather Footprints is not a weather warning service. Footprints show where weather could cause problems, so that you can plan ahead; they are not official warnings and should not be used in place of them. Always follow the warnings of your national weather service: the Met Office in the UK and Met Éireann in Ireland.
Every week, Weather Footprints checks the chances it gave over the past days against what airports across the UK and Ireland really reported. It also tries a new version of the corrections it makes to the chances (see Model), and switches to it only when the new version would have done better on those days. Each version is only ever judged on days it had not learned from.
Only frost and ice, fog, thunderstorms and high winds can be checked this way for now, because airports report them. Snow and heavy rain need other kinds of observation, which we hope to add.
Not checked yet
The first weekly check has not happened yet. Once it has, this page will show how the chances have done, and what each week's check found.
What the checks cannot tell
Airports are only some of the places the footprints cover, and few of them are on high ground or in the valleys where frost and fog are often worst. And a footprint's chance is for its worst spot, while each check is for one airport: the checks show how fair the chances are at airports, not whether each footprint came true.